In Defense of Bob Dole Jude Wanniski July 22, 1996

In the last week, since George Will got the ball rolling on the July 14 "This Week With David Brinkley" show, there have been several conservative opinion leaders suggesting that Bob Dole should concede defeat now, three weeks before the GOP national convention in San Diego. The argument is that he is so far behind Bill Clinton, and such a terrible campaigner, that his candidacy can only cause massive Republican losses on November 5 as the party faithful sit home and sulk. Bill Kristol, editor of The Weekly Standard and erstwhile supporter of Phil Gramm and Lamar Alexander, is reportedly talking mutiny. In her column last week, Arianna Huffington urged the Bobster to walk the plank. These, though, are provocateurs who never have been friendly to Dole. For George Will to recommend political euthanasia is another matter. When he is joined by syndicated columnist Cal Thomas, perhaps the most respected political columnist among religious conservatives, we can folly realize the sense of doom that pervades GOP ranks these days. In his Friday column, Thomas wrote: '"Republicans must enter whatever is the contemporary equivalent of a smoke-filled room, now, not in San Diego, and ask themselves whether it is worth losing everything that conservatives have worked for since Barry Goldwater just so Bob Dole can go down in flames, taking other Republicans with him...Those who want to stick with Mr. Dole must say by what scenario they believe he'll win. Mr. Dole is a great American, but a terrible presidential candidate. Many would consider him an even greater American if he stepped aside."

In defense of Dole, who is trailing the President in some polls by more than 20% and losing California by 27%, the problems he faces in unifying the Republican Party behind him are monumental. He has in fact won the GOP presidential nomination because he is more nearly representative of the myriad divisions within the party than any of the other contenders. He reflects all the economic and cultural fractures within the GOP's so-called Big Tent. The idea that he would resign from political life on the eve of something he has dreamed about achieving for at least 30 years — his party's presidential nomination — is not really serious. It is being put forward by those who despair that Dole is capable of bridging the divisions that are tearing apart the Republican Party. The pro-life faction can't compromise with the pro-choice faction. The budget balancers are horrified that the supply-siders are demanding across-the-board tax cuts that are not paid for. The flat-taxers will revolt if the VAT-taxers get the upper hand in the Dole campaign. Pat Buchanan, who got more votes than any of Dole's challengers, will not be allowed to speak to the GOP convention. General Colin Powell, whose views on social issues are not in Buchanan's ballpark, will speak to the convention instead. From immigration policy to affirmative action to trade with China to troops in Bosnia, Republicans are fighting mad, with each other. How is a poor kid from Kansas, 73 years old today, to make any sense of this mess? If you were Bob Dole, what would you do?

Now outside the Congress after all these years, he is supposedly outside his element. But what he has been trained to do in all his years as a legislative leader is to compose widely disparate differences among his own troops in order to have a unified front in dealing with the opposition leaders. He was never better at this than in 1993-94 in keeping his troops united, fending off the Democratic health care scheme, and voting unanimously against the Clinton tax increases. The last 18 months have been dismal for the GOP only because Dole deferred to the Speaker of the House on legislative strategy. If Dole were to call upon the same tactics and style that he employed as Senate leader, instead of  deferring to campaign managers who can't hold a candle to him on that score, he would have a much easier time whipping the party into a fighting unit. The rap on Dole is that he doesn't believe in anything strongly enough to have a vision of where to take the country. This is the flip side of his ability to get many different kinds of people working together in common cause. Ah, but then the question: What's the common cause?

How is it that nobody ever asks the question of President Clinton? What is his vision for America? Where does he want to go and how does he plan to get there? In fact, he has none of these questions to answer, because he has unified the Democratic Party behind the most worthy of goals — a defense of the social safety net that is the party's greatest achievement over the last sixty years. He can't get his partisan troops marching in one direction, but he can get them all to rally around the barricades. In this case, the best offense is a good defense. Republicans who see President Clinton as a defender of the status quo have been eager to mass behind Speaker Newt to storm those barricades — and have been mowed down in one wave after another. They see the Democrats as the enemy, when they should really be seeing a crippled political party that only can operate in a defensive mode. The GOP's problem is that it has too many ideas on how to move the country forward. It has a virtual monopoly of ideas. The Democrats only know how to defend what they have built in the past, a safety net for the poorest and weakest members of the national family. It's enough to get Mr. Clinton re-elected, perhaps even with my vote, unless Bob Dole can come up with something better than still more assaults on that barricade. When Brian Lamb asked him on C-SPAN Sunday night, what is the first thing you would do as President, the Bobster responded immediately that he would send the Republican Congress a constitutional amendment to balance the budget, and that he would follow that up with a balanced budget!!!

It seemed so reflexive that we could not be blamed for assuming that he is hopeless on that score. Which is why Newt Gingrich, who wants to avoid the fate of George Custer, asked Jack Kemp to help develop a growth agenda for the congressional Republicans. The GOP leadership has for all intents and purposes given up on Dole and is looking to fly its own growth banner. A one-day congressional economic summit will be held tomorrow on Capitol Hill, chaired by Rep. Tom Campbell, a Republican who was elected in a California special election, and who thus has no responsibility for the Contract With America. The event could turn out to be yet another Chinese fire drill, with participants going off in all directions one more time. If it comes up with the kind of crisp ideas Kemp presented in his June 18 Wall Street Journal essay, it might even help Dole. We should remind ourselves that Dole is not really a maniacal budget-balancer, that he is not maniacal about anything. Two years ago, when he was in a different mood, Tim Russert asked him on "Meet the Press" what he would do first as President, and he said he would cut the capital gains tax. Faced with General Custer's fate himself, his mood might change again.

Dole certainly has more than enough energy. No longer having to burn himself up at the zoo the Senate has become of late, and persuaded by his handlers not to have any more press conferences, Dole even seems to have time on his hands. His friends should suggest he start making some phone calls to pull together his party the way he did the Senate Republicans. Make believe Pat Buchanan is a Senator and call him up for a chat. Call Sen. Arianna Huffington and Sen. Cal Thomas and Senators Gary Bauer and Jack Kemp. Ask Sen. George Will and Sen. Bill Kristol what they think could be done. Mostly forget about assaulting Bill Clinton and the Democrats and their barricades, and think about how to assure their constituents they do not have to worry about their precious safety net. His weakness may be that he is a political leader who likes to cut deals, but it could also be his salvation. It's all he has at this point.