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Data Compilation Jude Wanniski August 16, 2005 |
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From: Jude Wanniski <jwanniski@polyconomics.com
To: Ben.S.Bernanke@ * * * * *.GOV
Subject: Fwd: Data Compilation
X-Attachments: c:\program files\qualcomm\eudora\attach\DataCompilation.doc;9:39 am, 8/16/2005
Dear Ben.... Some very interesting graphs in support of our continuing argument that Nixon's going off gold was a disaster in every respect. Note the last of the dozen or so graphs on how the divorce rate was stable between 1945 and 1971, then shot up. Did you know that in 1940, 67% of all families were headed by a male breadwinner..... the number is now down to 16%, with most requiring two breadwinners. JW
From: "Paul Hoffmeister" <phoffmeister@polyconomics.com>
To: "Jude Wanniski" <jwanniski@polyconomics.com>
Subject: Data Compilation
Date: Mon, 15 Aug 2005 14:33:17 -0400Jude,
As you requested, attached is a word document which contains a compilation of data on economic growth and various social behavior over the last 75 years. Importantly, the economic data is all adjusted for gold, ie I use a gold price deflator to measure real values instead of CPI or other artificial inflation measurements.
Since much of the economic data dates back to 1929, we get a good idea of the economic differences between the Great Depression, the Bretton Woods Era, and the post-Bretton Woods era. The bottom line is that of course the floating dollar experiment has been catastrophic to economic growth.
To get a sense of the social behavior during the post-BW period, I looked at unemployment rates, the Dept. of Justice Criminal Index, and divorce rates. (The DOJ Criminal Index includes such offenses as murders, rapes, roberries, assaults, & theft). Both unemployment and divorce rates peak precisely in 1980 as real GDP was beginning to revive. The DOJ Criminal Index peaks in 1980, falls a little, and rises again into 1990. In sum, our social well-being got a lot better as the economy got back on its feet. Note, I could only find data for the # of blacks imprisoned going back to 1986, so to keep all the data consistent I did not include it in this compilation.
All together, I think this data supports well the classical, supply-side view of the post-BW period.
Paul