Gore/Bush Fiscal Plans Jude Wanniski October 9, 2000

I recommend you click on http://www.ipi.org which is the website of the Institute for Policy Initiative, and download the 16 pages of the "IPIIssue Brief" that will be easily found at the top of the home page. It is the very best analysis of the tax and spending plans of the two candidatesavailable anywhere, by Gary & Aldona Robbins, with all the proposals ofeach run through the same analytical model. Not surprisingly, it shows theBush plan having more positive feedback effects than Gore's by the impactof the tax cuts and increased spending on economic growth. It is worthpaging through when you have some time, which is why I recommenddownloading. It is not easy to follow on a screen. One of the first copieswas sent Sunday to the Bush team in Austin, which has been awaiting thework, as the Robbins team has a high level of credibility amongcongressional Republicans -- having worked as technicians in the ReaganTreasury department.

There is no overlay with monetary policy in the Robbins report, an impossible task to do with any degree of certainty, although critical to the actual path of the economy -- with a Federal Reserve committed to stamping out economic growth that exceeds its preferences.

The Bush/Gore debate Wednesday night may reflect some of this work, as Bush thusfar has been constrained in discussing his fiscal plans vis a vis economic growth and potential supply-side revenue effects. One would hope he would cite the Robbins report... at least to put something side-by-side with the report of the left-wing Citizens for Tax Justice, which Gore cites in his zero-sum demand model in order to bolster his case against "the rich."